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Post by nhmountains on Feb 17, 2018 21:08:29 GMT -6
My neighbors sold out to Merck 40 years ago for 800,000 shares. I wonder how much that would be worth today? 45 mil. They divested over the years and I'm sure made a lot more money than holding on to Merck but, if they did and reinvested the dividends they'd be well above that but, another factor is stock splits. Merck has split 5 times since 1972. Some 2 for 1 and some 3 for 1. Im guessing their original shares would be in the $300M+ range if held. e
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Post by MN Slick on Feb 18, 2018 5:00:02 GMT -6
Then add to that, most funds are full of known losers you don't want to own, and underweight on stuff that is knocking the shit out of it. The issue is if you try to start chasing those winners/dumping the losers you will be too late. I feel my time is better spent doing many other things. The active managers who have Phds and CFAs spend 60+ hrs a week thinking about it and hope that with their fees they will keep you ahead of the losers. But over the long term over 90% of them do not beat the cheap index funds. I feel a little repetitive, but that is why I just buy mostly VTSAX (I do have some other vanguard and fidelity funds) and just set and forget. I do own all of the losers, but over the long term the winners will average you out to coming out ahead. If you don't believe that, there is almost no point to investing in the stock market. Historical returns are not a good predictor of future returns, but they are the best predictor that we have. So in the end, one of the few things we can control as the little guys is how much we are paying in fees to the big guys. Bingo!!
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Post by MoBuckChaser on Feb 18, 2018 6:14:11 GMT -6
They divested over the years and I'm sure made a lot more money than holding on to Merck but, if they did and reinvested the dividends they'd be well above that but, another factor is stock splits. Merck has split 5 times since 1972. Some 2 for 1 and some 3 for 1. Im guessing their original shares would be in the $300M+ range if held. e Cool!
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Post by sd51555 on Feb 18, 2018 7:47:15 GMT -6
Then add to that, most funds are full of known losers you don't want to own, and underweight on stuff that is knocking the shit out of it. The issue is if you try to start chasing those winners/dumping the losers you will be too late. I feel my time is better spent doing many other things. The active managers who have Phds and CFAs spend 60+ hrs a week thinking about it and hope that with their fees they will keep you ahead of the losers. But over the long term over 90% of them do not beat the cheap index funds. I feel a little repetitive, but that is why I just buy mostly VTSAX (I do have some other vanguard and fidelity funds) and just set and forget. I do own all of the losers, but over the long term the winners will average you out to coming out ahead. If you don't believe that, there is almost no point to investing in the stock market. Historical returns are not a good predictor of future returns, but they are the best predictor that we have. So in the end, one of the few things we can control as the little guys is how much we are paying in fees to the big guys. I'm not advocating everyone become stock pickers. I completely understand that we've all got our own unique interests and talents. However, I don't accept the belief that the market and the professionals can't be beaten. This is especially interesting to me considering our group of guys is comprised of many people who have gone and carved out pretty nice livings in fields that were also governed by those wiser and more powerful than us. I don't think I'm smarter than any fund manager out there, but you've got to realize these guys have constraints that prevent them from just hopping on a winning trade when it's staring them in the face. They may be bound by fund objectives, size, turnover constraints, capital gains considerations, or their own self interests. These 100 billion dollar funds cannot just move a billion here and a billion there to capitalize on pops and drops, they would absolutely destroy normal trading volume and cause enormous price swings. It'd be like driving a bicycle obstacle course with a long load semi. Nobody is more critical of my own method than me. I regularly check if I am beating the market or just spanking the monkey. This morning, I checked my portfolio vs the market YTD. Dow: +1.95% S&P 500: +2.15% SD51555: +9.73%The crazy thing is, MoBuck had the idea of the year and I ran with it. That made about a third of that 9.73%. The rest was prudent crash management.
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Post by MoBuckChaser on Feb 18, 2018 8:47:58 GMT -6
The issue is if you try to start chasing those winners/dumping the losers you will be too late. I feel my time is better spent doing many other things. The active managers who have Phds and CFAs spend 60+ hrs a week thinking about it and hope that with their fees they will keep you ahead of the losers. But over the long term over 90% of them do not beat the cheap index funds. I feel a little repetitive, but that is why I just buy mostly VTSAX (I do have some other vanguard and fidelity funds) and just set and forget. I do own all of the losers, but over the long term the winners will average you out to coming out ahead. If you don't believe that, there is almost no point to investing in the stock market. Historical returns are not a good predictor of future returns, but they are the best predictor that we have. So in the end, one of the few things we can control as the little guys is how much we are paying in fees to the big guys. I'm not advocating everyone become stock pickers. I completely understand that we've all got our own unique interests and talents. However, I don't accept the belief that the market and the professionals can't be beaten. This is especially interesting to me considering our group of guys is comprised of many people who have gone and carved out pretty nice livings in fields that were also governed by those wiser and more powerful than us. I don't think I'm smarter than any fund manager out there, but you've got to realize these guys have constraints that prevent them from just hopping on a winning trade when it's staring them in the face. They may be bound by fund objectives, size, turnover constraints, capital gains considerations, or their own self interests. These 100 billion dollar funds cannot just move a billion here and a billion there to capitalize on pops and drops, they would absolutely destroy normal trading volume and cause enormous price swings. It'd be like driving a bicycle obstacle course with a long load semi. Nobody is more critical of my own method than me. I regularly check if I am beating the market or just spanking the monkey. This morning, I checked my portfolio vs the market YTD. Dow: +1.95% S&P 500: +2.15% SD51555: +9.73%The crazy thing is, MoBuck had the idea of the year and I ran with it. That made about a third of that 9.73%. The rest was prudent crash management. MoBuck knows...... And there is nothing crazy about it! LOL!
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Post by MoBuckChaser on Feb 18, 2018 9:24:46 GMT -6
And where is my cut SD? LOL!
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Post by westbranch on Feb 18, 2018 9:25:36 GMT -6
YTD returns that are for 50 days don't really matter. What is your 5 year annualized return? What happens if you go back to 10 years? There seems to be a big increase in day trading again over the last 5-7 years. Not much different than the late 90s. "Crash Management" is going to be much more important over an extended downturn.
I worked with a wide variety of business owners over 6 years that built a lot of wealth without the stock market. I do not see it as being comparable to picking stocks.
The big fund managers have as much flexibility as they need. Your constraints of working a full time job and accessing information 2nd hand are much more limiting than the constraints they have. There are plenty of full-time amateurs traders out there using homemade algorithms to pick their trades and they would be picking up on buy/sell signals before you as well. The big money managers don't have to move 100B, there are plenty of groups within the companies working with $100Ms and smaller companies that are working in $10Ms. They have different teams that are working on different types of securities and industries. When they do move 100B they are just working with basis points. I have seen the W2 for a guy that works at an investment bank and only trades in municipal bonds and treasuries. He is just trying to make a few basis points and I hope my lifetime earnings will be as high as the tax withheld on his annual bonus. I also saw some his personal trading account over a couple years, he would have been better off sticking it all in an index fund.
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Post by sd51555 on Feb 18, 2018 9:32:49 GMT -6
And where is my cut SD? LOL! I assumed you wanted to let it ride.
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Post by MoBuckChaser on Feb 18, 2018 9:34:50 GMT -6
And where is my cut SD? LOL! I assumed you wanted to let it ride. And which Idea of the year did I make you guys money with this time? I have many you know! LOL!
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Post by Sandbur on Feb 18, 2018 12:24:56 GMT -6
I assumed you wanted to let it ride. And which Idea of the year did I make you guys money with this time? I have many you know! LOL! Did he invest in companies that build schools in Minnesota? . Couldn’t resist. We have a building referendum again at just over 50% of the last one.
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Post by MoBuckChaser on Feb 18, 2018 12:34:25 GMT -6
And which Idea of the year did I make you guys money with this time? I have many you know! LOL! Did he invest in companies that build schools in Minnesota? . Couldn’t resist. We have a building referendum again at just over 50% of the last one. Watch out for their scam on you tax payers!
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Post by sd51555 on Feb 18, 2018 13:32:25 GMT -6
I assumed you wanted to let it ride. And which Idea of the year did I make you guys money with this time? I have many you know! LOL! You had said that if we were worried about the market crapping out, to sell. I didn't sell, but I bought some option protection in case a crash happened. I made 250% on the options and within seconds of selling them, I turned around and used that cash and my sideline cash to buy up my quality stocks that were down most. Made money on the way down and up.
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Post by MoBuckChaser on Feb 18, 2018 13:34:55 GMT -6
And which Idea of the year did I make you guys money with this time? I have many you know! LOL! You had said that if we were worried about the market crapping out, to sell. I didn't sell, but I bought some option protection in case a crash happened. I made 250% on the options and within seconds of selling them, I turned around and used that cash and my sideline cash to buy up my quality stocks that were down most. Made money on the way down and up. Wow! That's Warren Buffet shit right there.....
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Post by Sandbur on Feb 18, 2018 16:16:30 GMT -6
And which Idea of the year did I make you guys money with this time? I have many you know! LOL! You had said that if we were worried about the market crapping out, to sell. I didn't sell, but I bought some option protection in case a crash happened. I made 250% on the options and within seconds of selling them, I turned around and used that cash and my sideline cash to buy up my quality stocks that were down most. Made money on the way down and up. And I didn’t buy or sell anything. I let the managers of the life style funds figure it out.
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Post by badbrad on Feb 20, 2018 16:14:19 GMT -6
When the correction happens. LOL
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