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Post by sd51555 on Mar 13, 2017 7:51:57 GMT -6
Time to pull something outta my rear to get us going on Monday, how bout a market prediction.
I've been watching stuff closely and it seems we're about stuck where we're at now. So, I see one of two things happening in the next six months. We're either going to take off to the high side and see markets up 50% in the next three years, or we're headed backwards 13% by end of summer. I think the market mover will be whether anything gets going in Washington by May.
That's just an off the cuff guess. Doomsdayers like to talk about Black Swan events. I think the most unforseen such event will be a bull run tremendously higher before any black swan type crash. It won't be driven by 20th century companies like Walmart or Exxon, but by 21st century companies like Apple, Google, Amazon, etc. I also see a lot of old companies slowly fading away. The quickest to see their demise will be giant big box retail stores. Target just got smashed. Cabelas and Gander are seeing it. Every major clothing retailer. Grocery store chains are next. Old world cable and satellite TV is also on the chopping block. Google is launching Youtube TV later this year. It will be a 40-channel offering for $35.
Need an example why? I bought a 5 pack of Hanes T-shirts at JC Penney for $29 recently. Looked on amazon last night, and I can get a 7 pack for $18 and free shipping. It can be almost impossible to get those customers back once they realize they have been getting the shaft.
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Post by Bwoods11 on Mar 13, 2017 8:16:13 GMT -6
It is a tough call, stocks seem a bit spendy. Depends on if they can pass tax reform, and get a good replacement for OBamacare. I could see the market staying sideways for awhile. It is gone up so much.
Agree on the retail, and that is too bad. Let me add these small town dollar stores are doing pretty well, and that has hurt Walmart and Target. We used to make a run to Alexandria for some of the stuff you need, we just go to the local Dollar General now, and they seem busy!
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Post by daydreamer on Mar 13, 2017 8:29:23 GMT -6
I can't believe how many Dollar General's have gone in in the last few years...!
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Post by sd51555 on Mar 13, 2017 8:36:09 GMT -6
They're popping up everywhere. I've noticed that too. That may be a well timed scavenging off the transition to ecommerce. My impression is that people are more geared to google around to try to find deals on things that cost more money. I don't know hardly anyone that does it for their normal necessaries. I of course am one, but consider if you just need asswipe, tomato sauce, or dish soap, those are damn convenient. If the reasons to go to St. Cloud, Duluth, Fargo, Nashua, or Manchester decline because of less need to shop, I could see those convenience outlets doing well.
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Post by biglakebass on Mar 13, 2017 8:42:55 GMT -6
Look at Aldi. Same thing. Popping up constantly.
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Post by MoBuckChaser on Mar 13, 2017 8:46:45 GMT -6
So you guys have the urge to lose money, keep buying. I would be ready to short the market myself.
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Post by Bwoods11 on Mar 13, 2017 8:52:16 GMT -6
I am shocked Apple stock is still growing like it has. I remember discussion on Seeking Alpha where the apple stock guys were saying, do not split the stock, no dividend! I thought at the time, that splitting the stock would allow more buyers, and the dividend often attracts certain funds or money managers to buy.
It split 7-1 and now Apple has a decent dividend. Warren Buffett bought a bunch of shares and it is now up to $139 a share. I plan to keep my shares forever, unless something weird goes on with the company. The amount of cash Apple generates in a year is beyond comprehension.
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Post by sd51555 on Mar 13, 2017 9:38:07 GMT -6
So you guys have the urge to lose money, keep buying. I would be ready to short the market myself. I'm not finding bullish pundits anywhere. Not finding many calling for crash either. Just lots of mental master bating over how frothy the market is. I'm not saying I'm right, but the market should have tanked 7 years ago and any time up until now. If there is going to be a collapse, somebody has to go first.
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Post by Freeborn on Mar 13, 2017 9:52:32 GMT -6
It is a tough call, stocks seem a bit spendy. Depends on if they can pass tax reform, and get a good replacement for OBamacare. I could see the market staying sideways for awhile. It is gone up so much. Agree on the retail, and that is too bad. Let me add these small town dollar stores are doing pretty well, and that has hurt Walmart and Target. We used to make a run to Alexandria for some of the stuff you need, we just go to the local Dollar General now, and they seem busy! I think companies are very lean right now and with some increase in economic velocity can put up some very good earnings numbers. You won’t see capacity or cost pressures for a while as most companies have plenty of excess capacity. There is also allot of labor slack in the economy so you won’t see labor inflation until later in the run. Companies need demand to build the momentum to break the market higher. If a run starts it will last several years.
Problem is the Democrats want Trump and capitalism to fail as it is the biggest risk to the Democrat socialist agenda in decades. Real change needs to happen, less regulation, changes to the tax code, repatriate cash. If Trump makes progress on these the economy will run.
Less regulation should be the easiest as much of what was put in place by Obama was with executive orders so it will be gone soon, getting congress to approve the tax code could be harder but if Trump ties it to infrastructure the Dems will look obstructionists if they reject it.
Infrastructure should make the Dems compromise and help Trump get a good part of what he wants.
Hopefully we don’t end up in the courts with every effort challenged but a special interest group.
I’m a bull by nature so I think the markets go higher as Trumps makes progress.
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Post by Foggy on Mar 13, 2017 9:54:28 GMT -6
I had a meeting with my planner last week. We took some profits and will invest those $ into low-risk bonds and some mid-caps. With the lofty mulitiiples now, were caucious.....and keeping some powder dry for an opportunity yet to come (?). Of course taking some profits means paying more taxes now. But long term gains aint so bad.
When you get to my age.....it gets harder to take a big hit in the market.....and have time, or the attitude to recover. I watched that happen to several of my older buddies.....where they got creamed by the market and didnt feel they could withstand another big drop in the markets. They withdrew from the markets......and then (sadly) watched as the markets advanced again. In one guys case.....he was just forced to live a lesser lifestyle in latter years.
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Post by Foggy on Mar 13, 2017 9:58:07 GMT -6
^ More and more I see the beauty of sticking to a good plan of ALLOCATiON. That means taking some profits and sticking with your plan through thick and thin. As they say....."Bulls make money, Bears make money,......and pigs get slaughtered".
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Post by Foggy on Mar 13, 2017 10:14:32 GMT -6
Look at Aldi. Same thing. Popping up constantly. Have you been to an Aldi store?? I fail to see what the attraction is. Off brand merchandise with poor organization. Maybe prices are a few cents cheaper....but??? Not much of a selection. Very much like a dollar store I suppose. Kinda like the Ben Franklin stores of old? I fail to see the attraction of either.....yet they seem to make money. I don't get it.
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Post by biglakebass on Mar 13, 2017 10:31:07 GMT -6
Yea we do go to the Aldi in Monticello. I actually like it. Small. Quick to grab stuff and get out. And many items are significantly cheaper than Walmart which is right across the street.
Quality of stuff varies. Some items are not so hot, but I am not an ultra picky guy so it really doesnt bother me. There are things I steer from.
But many items I find just as good as the name brand stuff Walmart has.
Example, Velveeta block cheese is around $7 at Walmart. The similar product is under $4 at Aldi and I really see no difference in them. Chips are great. I have no complaints on chips and they are quite a bit cheaper.
I am a fan of the place.
Meat specials can be pretty decent and the meat quality is just fine with me.
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Post by Bwoods11 on Mar 13, 2017 10:33:48 GMT -6
For meat, we eat venison, bought a 1/4 beef as well, and we have two good lockers on each end of the lake. Nothing like buying meat from a locker in my opinion! Aldi (I would say average)
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Post by biglakebass on Mar 13, 2017 10:41:49 GMT -6
We eat venison when we get a deer. I would never argue against a locker being the best! Absolutely. Closest "locker" to me is Von Hansons. Extremely overpriced on most everything they do, but they stay busy as hell. They charge $2 a lb to grind and package Venison burger!!! Ridiculous. I needed pork butts for making sausage recently, and Aldi had them for 1.39 a lb. For sausage making, you cant beat that anywhere at anytime.
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